While overall outlet numbers are expected to remain flat, the data shows continued structural change across the market, with growth increasingly concentrated among larger, branded and differentiated operators. Weaker sites are exiting across multiple channels, driving a consolidation of spend rather than broad‑based expansion.

The QSR sector is forecast to outperform the wider market, reaching £17.9bn (+1.7%), supported by its value‑led positioning as consumers continue to moderate discretionary spend. Coffee, bakery and sandwich formats are also set to deliver above‑market growth, with premium and scale brands benefiting from everyday usage and targeted estate expansion.

By contrast, service‑led restaurants, pubs & bars are showing modest revenue growth despite declining outlet numbers, highlighting increasing sales concentration among stronger operators. Across all channels, Lumina Intelligence’s Operator Data Index notes a clear shift towards selective, format-led expansion, with value perception and clear customer propositions a priority.

The Lumina Intelligence Menu Tracker also reveals a cautious hospitality sector, as restaurants, pubs and coffee shops look to protect margins in an uncertain demand environment.

Across restaurants and pubs, operators are prioritising cost control and margin protection over expansion. Menus are being streamlined, with growth deliberately constrained as brands focus on simplifying operations.

Rather than increasing core menu prices, operators are quietly driving incremental spend through sides, desserts and extras. These categories offer higher margins and are perceived as discretionary, allowing consumers to trade up without feeling penalised.

NPD is doing much of the heavy lifting on profitability. Premium‑priced new dishes refresh menus and improve margins, while keeping same‑line inflation low on core items and maintaining value perceptions.

In contrast to the wider market, coffee and sandwich shops continue to expand menus and push price more assertively. Indulgence‑led bakery items, comfort mains and dessert‑style drinks are driving growth, underpinned by stronger pricing power and competitive pressure.

“Overall, the latest Lumina Intelligence Menu Tracker data highlights a sector focused on resilience rather than expansion,” commented insight lead Linda Haden. “With demand unpredictable and pressures ongoing, operators are taking a more surgical approach, protecting core prices while using innovation, sides and treats to unlock incremental value.”